Ontario’s long political summer is at an end, with the impending return of the Legislature on October 21. MPPs will sit for 7 weeks before the holiday break – a shortened session, and one that promises to set up a looming election campaign.
Election speculation is not just for Ottawa anymore. Since the summer, the governing Ontario Progressive Conservatives, under Premier Doug Ford, have been positioning themselves to go to the polls before the scheduled date in June 2026. Though Premier Ford has ruled out calling an election in 2024, his calendar for 2025 appears to be wide open. The Ontario PCs have begun nominating candidates and training campaign managers, while launching a lengthy and sustained barrage of negative ads against Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie.
Why would the Premier and the PCs want to launch early? First, the polls are strong. The Ontario PCs continue to hold a decisive lead over the Liberals and the NDP, under leader Marit Stiles. This is despite generally poor approval ratings for both the government and Doug Ford personally. Second, the federal political scene may be overshadowing Ontario, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s deeper unpopularity drawing hostility away from Ford and burdening the Ontario Liberals at the same time. If the PCs can hold an election under these circumstances, they could secure another majority that would keep the party in office until 2029. If they wait after the federal election, they risk becoming the public’s next focus for frustration and disappointment, while having to manage the unpredictability of a new federal Conservative government under Pierre Poilievre. Calling the election early is a risk, but so is waiting until 2026.
Before launching the campaign, Premier Ford appears poised to spend the fall session crafting a series of wedge issues aimed at Bonnie Crombie. He is eager to cast the former Mississauga mayor as unfriendly to drivers and commuters in the Greater Toronto Area, and avoid more difficult issues, particularly around healthcare. First, the government will introduce legislation requiring municipalities to get provincial approval before replacing vehicle lanes with bike lanes. Some bike lane deployments in Toronto and Mississauga have been unpopular with drivers, and Ford is looking to force Crombie to choose a side. The Premier is also championing the construction of a new expressway tunnel under Highway 401. To call this idea a ‘megaproject’ would be an understatement, but taken together these new priorities underline how he plans to win his early election – by focusing on drivers and commuters in suburban Toronto. And if that’s not enough, the government’s Fall Economic Statement, due October 30, will send individual rebate payments of around $200 to every adult and child in the province.
Doug Ford’s large majority means that most government legislation is passed efficiently, but there are some outstanding items from the spring. These government bills, currently at Second Reading, are expected to pass during the fall:
- Bill 197, Safer Roads and Communities Act, 2024 (focused on impaired driving measures and road safety)
- Bill 194, Strengthening Cyber Security and Building Trust in the Public Sector Act, 2024 (focused on AI systems and cyber security in the public sector)
- Bill 190, Working for Workers Five Act, 2024 (focused on working conditions, including requiring washrooms)
Ontario’s NDP, though it has been the Official Opposition since 2018, is struggling to be heard. The party recently launched a new ad campaign, “It’s Marit”, introducing the party leader and positioning her as a bold and compassionate alternative to Doug Ford. The party retains certain strengths: a bigger Opposition caucus with veteran MPPs, plus the resources that come with holding official party status in the Legislature. Meanwhile, the Ontario Liberals are also struggling, though the party can point to some progress in the past year. In the recent Bay of Quinte by-election, the Liberals attracted a strong local candidate and placed a close second to the PCs. The Liberals are improving fundraising, though they have lagged the NDP in 2024. The Liberals plan to focus on health care when the Legislature resumes.
This short seven-week sitting will usher in a pre-election period with an unknown end date. PAA will continue to follow the Ontario landscape and keep clients on top of events.