Premier Tim Houston of Nova Scotia has called an election for November 26, eight months before the scheduled date of July 15, 2025. While the decision has sparked debate about the timing, Premier Houston is looking for a second term in office, having come to power in 2021. His primary opponents, Zach Churchill of the Liberals, and Claudia Chender of the NDP, are aiming to stop him.
They have a long road ahead. However, both parties are preparing to challenge Houston’s record and present alternative visions.
Tim Houston and the governing PCs hold a strong lead in public polling. Houston himself enjoys relatively high approval ratings, although his popularity has slipped in recent weeks. The PCs have maintained their competitive edge even in government. Since 2021, the PCs have flipped the long-time Liberal stronghold of Preston in a by-election, while two Liberal MLAs, Brendan Maguire and Fred Tilley, have crossed the floor and joined the governing benches. Houston’s campaign is energetic and upbeat, focused on his government’s investments and reforms in healthcare. Despite facing some criticism for handling issues such as cost-of-living pressures, the PCs are looking to gain seats in this election, targeting mostly Liberal seats in the Annapolis Valley, South Shore and in the outer Halifax region.
Zach Churchill took the top spot of Nova Scotia Liberals in the wake of the party’s defeat in the 2021 election. Churchill, a former Health and Education Minister under the past Liberal government, faces a difficult campaign. Several veteran MLAs have decided not to run again, in addition to the two who defected to the PCs. The party struggles to criticize the government on healthcare, given that they held office for eight years before Houston took office. However, Churchill is seeking to differentiate his approach, particularly with his promise to cut the harmonized sales tax by 2 points, though this has been challenged by the PCs – who cut the tax by 1 point before the campaign. Churchill’s own seat in Yarmouth may be in play, and the party faces a challenging path to retain and grow its presence in the legislature, through it hopes to energize its base with a focus on affordability and healthcare.
Claudia Chender, MLA for Dartmouth South, took over the leadership of the Nova Scotia NDP in 2022 following an uncontested race. While the NDP can be competitive in Nova Scotia, forming government between 2009 and 2013, the party’s fortunes have soured in recent years. Highly competitive in the Halifax area, the party struggles to achieve the electoral success it once had in the more rural ridings of the province, where it would need to make inroads to form government. However, the NDP may see an opportunity to move into second place and claim the role of Official Opposition by taking urban seats from the weakened Liberals in Halifax. The NDP is focusing on housing and healthcare in its campaign.
The path for Houston is clear. He must hold his lead in suburban Halifax, while maintaining the PC advantage in more rural areas and Cape Breton to win a second term. If ridings like Yarmouth, Cole Harbour-Dartmouth, and Bedford Basin flip to Houston’s PCs, then the party is virtually guaranteed a second majority mandate. However, the campaign’s progress in key areas will depend on how well Houston addresses emerging concerns about the government’s record in issues like housing and healthcare. Claudia Chender’s NDP could take Liberal-held seats such as Halifax Armdale and Fairview-Clayton Park, which are all urban Halifax ridings. The Liberals may have to play defence, protecting their existing seats, while any hoped-for gains could come in the Annapolis Valley, South Shore or around Halifax. With all three major parties focusing on critical areas such as affordability, healthcare, and housing, this election will test how each leader connects with voters’ changing economic and political dynamics.
PAA will continue to monitor this early campaign and keep clients updated.
