The Liberal Party of Canada is in the midst of a crucial leadership race that will determine who replaces Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as party leader and potentially, as Canada’s next Prime Minister. The race concludes this weekend amidst the escalation of the Canada-U.S. trade war triggered by Donald Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada. With the future direction of the party at stake, this leadership race is one of the most pivotal moments for the Liberals in recent history. The outcome will shape their approach heading into the next federal election and determine how they position themselves against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party.
Below is a backgrounder on the logistics of the race, which has unfolded quickly.
Who is voting?
Eligible voters in the race needed to register as a Liberal by January 27 at 5 PM EST. They must be at least 14 years old, and be a Canadian citizen, permanent resident, or have status under the Indian Act. As the vote is held electronically, the party is requiring eligible voters to verify their identity through Canada Post, either through the Canada post app or in person, by March 7 at 5 PM ET.
How is this election organized?
Voting began February 26 and continues until March 9 at 3 PM ET. The voting process follows a ranked ballot system, allowing party members to rank candidates in order of preference. The party assigns each riding 100 points, and awards candidates points proportional to their share of the vote in each riding. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the total points in the first round, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated, and their points are redistributed based on voters’ second and third choices. This system is similar to that used by the Conservatives in their recent leadership elections.
Although the Liberal Party insists electronic voting is the safest and most accessible voting method, many voters have found the process cumbersome and difficult to navigate. Older adults and those unfamiliar with technology, in particular, can feel excluded. To a significant extent online voting was the only viable method given the very short timeframe for the election.
The Candidates
Mark Carney, the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the race. Having raised the most funds, Carney has positioned himself as the candidate best equipped to handle economic challenges. His extensive financial expertise has garnered strong support, but his performance in the leadership debates has left some questioning his ability to connect with voters on a broader range of issues.
Also in the race is Chrystia Freeland, former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance. A key figure in Trudeau’s government, Freeland brings significant experience and credibility to the contest. However, she faces a challenge in distinguishing herself from Trudeau’s legacy, as many party members are looking for chance, not continuity. Despite highlighting her skills as a negotiator, particularly during free trade negotiations with the United States during President Trump’s first term, she has struggled to carve out a unique vision that differentiates her from the current government’s trajectory.
Karina Gould, former Government House Leader, has positioned herself as the grassroots candidate. She emphasizes putting people over policy, advocating for a more direct, community-driven approach to leadership. Gould’s campaign has focused on engaging directly with party members and highlighting everyday concerns, rather than overarching economic policies.
Also in the race is former Member of Parliament and businessman Frank Baylis whose performance in the debates exceeded the expectations of many, although he has not gained as much traction as the other candidates.
The Announcement
Liberals will convene in Ottawa on March 9, where the results will be read live after voting concludes at 3:00 PM ET. It is expected that the winner will be known in the early evening, depending on how many rounds of voting have to be counted. As the race nears its conclusion, all eyes will be on Ottawa to see who emerges victorious, taking the helm of the party before being sworn in as Prime Minister in the following days.
