A “year of democracy” continues in Canada, with three upcoming provincial general elections this fall. With British Columbia’s election scheduled for October 19th, the dramatic twists and turns on the Opposition benches have made it one to watch.
B.C.’s NDP majority government was re-elected in 2020, at the depths of the pandemic. In 2022, former Premier John Horgan resigned, and was succeeded by David Eby after a leadership process in which Eby was the only approved candidate. Eby’s approval ratings have been stable, though in recent months dissatisfaction with his government has grown over the high cost of housing and crime.
The NDP approached this campaign hoping for a “Right-Wing Split”, watching as the BC Conservatives under John Rustad gained ground at the expense of Kevin Falcon’s BC United – the former BC Liberals. The two opposition parties were battling it out for the mantle of the “Center-Right” alternative while the NDP cruised to a super-majority. But after a dramatic week in BC politics, the race has tightened.
On August 28th, BC United leader Kevin Falcon, joined by BC Conservative leader John Rustad, announced the suspension of its campaign. BC United withdrew from the campaign and threw its support to the BC Conservatives, who have brought several BC United MLAs and candidates on to their slate. There was little precedent for this move – the former governing party giving way to a party that won no seats at the last election. When John Rustad took the party’s leadership following his departure from the BC United caucus (Kevin Falcon removed Rustad over comments he made about climate change), the party was hovering around 10% in public polls. Fast forward to the day following the August 28th announcement, and the Conservatives are statically tied governing NDP with 44% to 43%, though when diving deeper into the regional numbers the NDP still has a lead in Metro Vancouver and on the Island.
Many factors contributed to John Rustad’s rapid rise. For one, the Conservatives were quick to position themselves against some unpopular policies of the Eby government, including its “drug decriminalization” pilot, which allowed British Columbians to use small amounts of illicit substances in certain designated places. The government recently backtracked on these policies. The BC Liberals changing their name to BC United didn’t help their party’s chances as the “Center-Right” alternative as opposed to the Conservatives, as evidenced by the fact that the party was lobbying to include their name “Formerly the BC Liberals” on the ballot. However, the rise of the Conservative Party of Canada’s fortunes and the increased popularity of its leader, Pierre Poilievre, have undoubtedly buoyed the provincial Conservatives’ popularity.
However, John Rustad remains a controversial figure in British Columbia politics, particularly due to his views on climate change. The BC Conservatives reject the idea that climate change is a “crisis,” positioning themselves in opposition to the mainstream scientific consensus. This has drawn criticism from environmentalists and more progressive political figures and will continue to be a point of tension throughout the election. Furthermore, the party’s platform has drawn scrutiny for its positions on social issues, including opposing certain aspects of gender and diversity education in schools. This blend of climate skepticism and traditionalist views on social issues has led to Rustad to be questioned by former BC United supporters who don’t feel comfortable following their former leader into the party. At least 3 BC United MLAs are planning to run as Independent candidates, which could still give the NDP the vote splits they hoped for.
The NDP still holds the advantage as the incumbent party and the party most favoured in seat-rich Metro Vancouver. At the same time, the Conservatives dominate in seats around the Okanagan, the Interior, and the province’s rural areas. For David Eby, his party needs to hold their advantage in the heavily urban areas and try to blunt any advancement the Conservatives will make in more suburban areas and on Vancouver Island. Meanwhile, Rustad needs to rack up his party’s gains in more rural areas and look for any openings in Metro Vancouver to become Premier.
This election is already making history. This election will be one to watch, and the outcome will be a matter of “firsts.” Will the NDP win a third-straight election, the first time in the party’s history? Or will John Rustad succeed in taking the BC Conservatives to power for the first time since 1928? And will there be any future for BC United and its members who decide not to join up with Rustad?
